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Global Trending
10/06 - The United States could be facing another hurricane immediately after Helene. Tropical storm Milton is picking up steam, with several other significant storms showing signs of developing in the North Atlantic Ocean.
10/05 - The Biden Administration has decided to provide Lebanon with $157M in humanitarian aid, drawing criticism about helping a foreign adversary while the United States grapples with hurricane devastation on the East Coast.
10/04 - Is Russia returning to the barter system? Not exactly, but the recent trend is somewhat amusing. Russia is bartering Chickpeas and Lentils for Mandarin Oranges and Rice from Pakistan. While bartering in the aggregate is less economically efficient, this isn't the first time Russia has leveraged foreign policy to trade directly.
10/03 - Tensions are now running hot after Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel for the first time, seeking to penetrate air defenses. Not only will this likely embolden Israeli actions in Lebanon, but major retaliation by Israel is now looking increasingly likely.
10/02 - In stark contrast to the Trump/Harris debate, J.D. Vance outshined Tim Walz in a surprising VP debate performance. If we are forced to give each VP candidate a grade, J.D. Vance gets an A- and Tim Walz gets a C. Tim Walz missed a big opportunity to appeal to swing state voters on the fence.
10/01 - Despite the Biden Administration publicly urging Israel not to invade Lebanon, the U.S. is now taking a proactive role in defending Israel against strikes from Iran. It has become clear that divergence in policy objectives will not hinder American support for Israeli domestic security.
09/30 - It has now become clear that Israel will formally invade Lebanon, the question that remains is how far the objective extends. For example, will Israel primarily focus on the Southern region of Lebanon or potentially extend into places like Syria for geostrategic advantage?
Singapore: Balancing Trade Opportunities and Geopolitical Risks
Developed World - Week 32, Special Edition
Singapore has increasingly become the shining center of East Asia, representing a Switzerland-like neutrality in trading with countries across many different political backgrounds. Access to these regional opportunities and taking full advantage of domestic strengths has...
Xi Jinping's Sustained Authoritarian Path
People and Society - June, 2024 Edition
While some restrictions in China have eased, the authoritarian approach to governance has never been greater from Xi at home and abroad
Cracks are beginning to show in the system...
Regional Commentary
China and East Asia:
OPINION - China is making a huge mistake by pushing back against the American alliance network at scale. On a fundamental level, China relies on export markets to drive forward economic growth. Not to mention, many of the inputs are also imported, most notably for critical food and energy inputs. With America being the most capable Navy in the world by a long shot, this strategy seems to be at odds with long-term Chinese interests.
Iran and the Middle East:
OPINION - Iran expanding the sale of Shahed drones and Fath-360 short-range missiles makes a lot of strategic sense. Israel is significantly more militarily advanced, thanks to the long-term partnership with the United States. The relationship with Russia gives Iran three critical things it needs (aside from an ally): 1) Iran needs time to build out military industrial complex. 2) Iran needs to test equipment in real war situations and Ukraine offers a unique opportunity. 3) Iran needs income, particularly as global energy markets show initial signs of weakening
Russia and Eurasia:
OPINION - There has been widespread criticism of Ukraine pushing the invasion into Russia proper, with professionals suggesting that Ukraine would need a significantly greater force to successfully hold the Kursk region. Nevertheless, it is important to withhold judgement until we see midterm battlefield results. I find it particularly interesting that Ukraine has sent some of their best troops, potentially impacting the outcome. Five other advantages come to mind: 1) If Ukraine can hold the Kursk region, this would enable better counterattacking in the South. 2) Gaining territory could boost morale and fracture Russian decision-making. 3) Having forces inside Russia could help disrupt military supply chains. 4) Creating some initial chaos could help Ukraine in the broader conflict, trying something new isn't the worst idea. 5) If a new American President seeks negotiations with Putin, Ukraine will need leverage to get back critical territories.
World Leader Spotlight
Joe Biden - President of the United States since 2020
Although President Biden has decided to hand the baton to Kamala Harris for the upcoming election, it is important to remember Biden is still running the country. This is particularly important in foreign affairs, as tensions escalate in the Middle East and the Ukraine War begins to heat up. Biden has shown a consistent willingness to engage on foreign priorities with strength, even supporting Israel despite his reservations on the political situation there. This is critically important, given these coming months will define how the next President begins their administration. With war now emerging on multiple global fronts, his legacy will ultimately be affected by how these conflicts turn out.
Is United States ambiguity on Taiwan beneficial to US strategic interests?
Geographic Highlight
Tensions rise between China and The Philippines as Xi orders new tactics
Growing tensions in the South China Sea are not new, with China making aggressive geostrategic actions in greater number over the past two years. The most recent trend is putting pressure by air, using both boats and planes to intimidate the Philippines into submission on SCS claims - Not likely to succeed.
Political Highlight
Kari Lake versus Ruben Gallego in Arizona Senate race looking tight
As the race heats up, there is a growing question about whether Ruben Gallego will win, given the narrow poll numbers. However, it is worth noting that despite the longer Republican track record in the State, Ruben Gallego does have some advantages relative to Governor Katie Hobbs that beat Kari Lake in 2022.
Democracy's Collapse in Niger: Potential for Intervention
Political Systems - 2nd Quarter, 2024 Edition
A History of the Peloponnesian War by Thucydides
The Collection - View in PDF format
Thucydides, an Athenian, wrote the history of the war between the Peloponnesians and the Athenians, beginning at the moment that it broke out, and believing that it would be a great war and more worthy of relation than any that had preceded it. This belief was not without its grounds. The preparations of both the combatants were in every department in the last state of perfection; and he could see the rest of the Hellenic race taking sides in the quarrel; those who delayed doing so at once having it in contemplation.
Continue Reading
With the 2020 election being the most divisive election in modern American history, 2024 is showing signs of being even more divisive on the issues.
Can Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, both of whom have very partisan records, take positive actions to bring down the temperature?
